Every computer projection system except for 1 has the Yankees winning the AL East.
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_1
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2
Read them. Seriously.
Here is the disclaimer given by RLYB:
YankeesAmazing stuff. Seriously, check that site out!!!!
Projected W-L: 95-67
Playoff %: 76%
Best Average Projection: Pecota (97-65)
Worst Average Projection: Chone (93-69)
The consensus is the Yankees are the best team in the American League. This doesn't seem unrealistic if their young pitchers perform as projected, but that's a really big if. Any projecting of young pitchers based primarily on MLEs probably have large error bars around them. I'm also a little worried about the bullpen , although Mo and Joba are a fine 1-2 punch. The bench looks to be as good as it's been in some time. On offense, the Yankees scored 1000 or more runs in 376 of the 6000 runs, so about 6% of the time. For comparison's sake, Boston did it 12 times, Detroit did it 13 times, Atlanta did it twice, Philadelphia did it 31 times, Milwaukee did it twice and Colorado did it 4 times. At least statistically, the conventional wisdom that Boston is the clear class of the division is just not true on virtual paper.


