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More than anything, look at that lineup. Jorge Posada turns 38 in August. Derek Jeter turns 35 in June. Hideki Matsui also turns 35 in June, and he's coming off an injury. Johnny Damon's already 35. Robinson Cano had a .305 on-base percentage last year, Nick Swisher hit .219, Xavier Nady is Xavier Nady. I mean, those guys are names, some of them, and maybe they all have a last hurrah in them. But maybe not. That lineup just reminds me so much of those teams you see that will not let go of the past - kind of like the Kansas City Chiefs of the 1970s. The key to the Yankees lineup, for me, was Teixeira repeating what he was able to do in Anaheim for a couple of months and A-Rod being A-Rod. Without those two things, I just don't see the Yankees - even with all the money they spent on pitching - being as good as the Red Sox or Rays.

1B Mark Teixeira: Solid producer, typically scrapes the underside of MVP-level production but could easily rise to that level with a good season.

I expect you don't have a problem with that one. Teixeira is a very good hitter, and with some good luck or some slight tweak in his performance, like a mildly improved line drive rate, he could exceed expectations.

2B Robinson Cano: Has to hit .300 to contribute. He might do that, he might not.

Can't argue here. This is just factual. Because Cano doesn't walk and isn't what you would call a slugger, when he doesn't get his average above a certain level, he eats outs without giving the team much in return. I believe he has a decent-sized rebound in him, but whether he reaches the point of actually being an asset on offense I can't guess.

3B Cody Ransom: Has some pop, but is unlikely to hit for sustainable average (PECOTA: .216/.293/.386).

This isn't a big reach either. The Ransom of A-Rod is a career .242/.322/.426 hitter in nearly 1200 minor league games. His numbers at Scranton last year translate to .216/.295/.421 in the majors. At 33, he's not going to find untapped pools of ability. He's far more likely to find untapped pools of retirement. While he might find the odd hot streak, as he did last fall, I wouldn't recommend betting on it. As I said above, I'm rooting for him, but that doesn't mean having unfounded expectations.

SS Derek Jeter: Offense has declined in two straight seasons. Average of five projection systems: .300/.368/.419.

I didn't make a prediction here so much as make two statements. If he reaches the numbers cited above, no one will complain.

LF Johnny Damon: Almost certain to take a giant step back.

Here's one of the ones that caused Yankeegirl to straighten her curls. Unfortunately, I didn't go out on a limb here either. First, Damon has never been a particularly consistent player, and at 35 he's not likely to start. Second, his 2008 season was one of the best of his career if not the best. Players generally don't set new performance norms at 34. I hope Damon does, because he's had an interesting career and his having a Steve Finley-style last act would put a cherry on it, but it is unlikely to happen. Now, whether Damon dials it back a lot or just a little I don't know, but the change will be significant either way because all the elements of Damon's game have to work together for him to make a real contribution -- a little batting average, a little power, a little baserunning, a little patience. You kick out any one of those legs and he starts to tread water on the league averages.

CF Brett Gardner and pals: Any production will be a bonus.

This is a conservative prediction, and between last fall and this year's spring power surge I'm hoping that we've seen the birth of a new Gardner, but (as much as I think he'll be a better regular than Melky Cabrera) until we see him hit with authority for a sustained period of time, he's still Jason Tyner until proven innocent.

RF Nick Swisher: should be productive in a lower echelon kind of way, Xavier Nady less so, either way, not a big plus.

Swisher is another guy I think will help the Yankees with his walks and his power, but he's not an MVP-type hitter, and the whole point of this exercise was to suggest that in the absence of Rodriguez, the Yankees are down to one player who meets that description.

DH Hideki Matsui: should hit decently, but not at an MVP level.

We're entering the seventh year of Matsui's American career, and he is who he is. There should be nothing remotely controversial about that statement. I actually considered throwing in a few caveats based on age and his physical problems.

C Jorge Posada: may or may not be ready to open the season, may or may not hit as well as he used to, and will probably have to yield to Jose Molina on a regular basis

Again, this is simply a statement of where things are